Say it with me now...
DUHHHHHH. How many times are we going to go over this? I'm guessing just enough times for Jerusalem and or Tel Aviv to disappear under a mushroom cloud.
Simply for the sake of tradition, here are my (reiterated) predictions for the foreseeable future:
We ask Iran nicely to stop enriching uranium.
They say no.
We try to get sanctions passed through the U.N. Seucri+y Counci|.
Russia and or China block them outright or get them watered down enough to where they don't matter.
All the while, Iran is enriching away, moving toward a nuclear arsenal that they will use.
At the risk of sounding cliche, I'm reminded of the saying "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."* And we're just sitting there.
Notes:
*This quote is frequently credited to British political philosopher Edmund Burke. All indications are, however, that he never said it. Regardless, it still sounds good.
posted by That guy @ 4:21 PM
2 Comments:
I ain't nothing but a songwriter, but this doesn't look good at all. What simultaneously calms me and scares me to death is that I don't think Israel is going to sit back and let them get the bomb - even if Israel has to take care of it alone. I also don't think the entire middle east is going to sit back and watch Israel attack Iran. Thoughts?
Well, I think you're right about Israel not sitting idly by while Iran gets the bomb. They went after Iraq back when they were trying to get the bomb, and I'm pretty sure they would/will do the same with Iran.
The problem with THAT is, Iran learned from Iraq's mistake of putting its entire nuclear program into one easily-bombed building. Iran's nuclear sites are much more fortified and numerous. A mere bombing campaign probably wouldn't be enough to completely take care of it. It would probably require a nasty ground invasion.
The problem with THAT is, as we saw with Hezbollah, the second Israel starts trying to actually FIGHT a war, everyone starts bitching and calling for a cease-fire and condemning Israel for war crimes.
I don't doubt that Israel COULD defeat Iran, it's just a matter of whether they would put in the effort needed to do so. Or, more accurately, whether the rest of the world will let them put in the necessary effort. I have my doubts about that. So much of the world simply doesn't understand the threat posed by a nuclear Iran.
As far as other nations intervening in any potential conflict, it's certainly a possibility. The most likely culprits would be Syria and Lebanon/Hezbollah. Countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are too beholden to the U.S. to jeopardize their relationship by attacking our ally.
Also, it's pretty much the region's worst kept secret that Israel is a nuclear power. So, if Israel faced a truly existential threat by multiple armies, I'm sure (or at least I hope) they wouldn't hesitate to use it. Also, if it got to be that bad, I honestly hope that America would help. It's certainly no accident that we have 200,000 soldiers right next door to Iran.
So basically, I agree that Israel won't let Iran get the bomb. The question is whether we'll have the backbone and the stomach to let them do it.
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