Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Obama's message: Changeity hopeity changeity hope! Hopeity changeity hopeity change!

After another series of votes, it seems like Barack Obama is coasting to the finish line for the Democrat nomination. This is where it gets interesting. As it becomes clearer to the Clinton Machine that they're losing, I expect them to get all the more desperate, negative, and vicious. I almost expect any of the following issues to come up in the next two weeks:

    -Charges of corruption from his past in Illinois.

    -The fact that he has no relevant record of which to speak.

    -Michelle Obama's senior thesis in which she writes about how the U.S. was founded in crime and hatred and the "ineradicable racism" of whites.

    -Digging up (again) his drug use and possible drug-selling.


Hillary does this, however, at her own peril. So-called "Obamania" is at a point now such that anyone who dare speak ill of it invites the spurn and wrath of its fervent believers. As it stands now, with Obama up by about 150 "pledged" delegates, I see no feasible scenario in which Hillary catches up to him. So, Hillary will unload on Obama but still likely lose. As a Republican, I don't particularly mind. It's the best of both worlds. Hillary goes nuts, the Clintons suffer a total meltdown, Obama wins but is incredibly weakened for the general election. Sounds good to me.

I've noticed an interesting trend lately in the media. Several articles have popped up lately that highlight Obama's lack of substance and the waning of the frenzy surrounding him.

I've thought for a few weeks now that Obama is running the risk of peaking too early. It's hard for me to imagine him being able to keep the fervor at such a high level for the next eight and a half months, particularly with Hillary going down swinging -- presumably below the belt -- followed by five or six months of Republican pounding.

The main criticism of Obama is currently that he lacks substance. I suspect that once he starts attempting to be more substantive -- as he did last night -- people will begin to see that his calls for change and bipartisanship are not reflected in his policies. It should be fairly easy for McCain and the Republicans to poke holes in Obama's plans. With McCain being a spending/deficit hawk, he should have no problem pointing out that the majority of Obama's plans would involve higher taxes, bigger government, a larger deficit, more debt, a slower economy, etc. Those sort of things simply do not resonate with the vast majority of the American people.

Moreover, many people have described Obama as the next JFK. This boggles my mind. Are we talking about the JFK that cut taxes and was adamantly anti-communist? Who said "ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country?" Obama has no intention of cutting taxes -- especially if he intends to implement more government programs. He also apparently has no desire to deal with radical Islam -- this generation's version of communism. And he certainly isn't asking what people can do for their country. Quite the opposite -- he's promising people that the government will do many things for them.

If I've learned anything in this election cycle, it's that predictions mean nothing. But it seems to me that the shine is going to quickly come off the Obama apple, and that the younger voters we've been hearing so much about lately will be as dejected as ever come November. I suspect that either one of two things will happen: either Obama rides his rhetoric wave as far as it will go and people tire of it, or he will do his best to be substantive and lose moderate voters, while young voters get bored. It's just as well. Government needs to be run by adults.

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