11th Hour Election Thoughts

With less than 24 hours to go before the polls open (and with many people voting early) I thought it was appropriate to offer some last minute thoughts (and maybe some predictions) on the whole thing.

First of all, for dorks like me, this is like watching the BCS Championship when a team I actually care about is playing. Starting at about 7:00 tomorrow, I'm going to be glued to my computer, obsessively checking the returns. I can't wait.

I'm sure I've said before (but am currently too lazy to actually link) that this election cycle is going to be quite a dirty one, and that certainly came true. Particularly in Virginia. From the commercials I've seen lately, all an uninformed observer would know is that George A||en has had his picture made with the President and that Jim Webb is a chauvinistic pervert. I have to say that I'm actually pretty disappointed in A||en's campaign. It just doesn't seem like it was run very well, and he handled his bad PR about as poorly as possible. If he'd stuck to issues, he'd be up double digits. Alas, he didn't, and the race is much closer than it should be. It's a shame, really.

In Maryland, however, I've been pleasantly surprised by Michae| Stee|e. His campaign has been almost flawless and he says what he means. A month ago, I wouldn't have given him much of a chance. But given his recent endorsements, he actually has a chance to pull it off. Either way, it's going to be closer than anyone would've thought.

As far as predictions go, things are much too volatile right now to make any meaningful guesses. Though in the interest of full disclosure, back in March I predicted that Republicans would probably lose about ten seats -- falling short of the 15 the Democrats need to take control of the House. For the sake of consistency, I'll stick with that -- with the qualifier that it was made seven months ago.

While I'm a little wary of making predictions of what this election is, I'm a bit more comfortable making predictions about what it isn't. It isn't going to be a massive 1994-style election. While the Democrats have a decent chance of claiming control of the House (a net of at least 15 seats), I would be absolutely shocked if they ended up with a 10 seat majority (a net of 25 seats). That is to say, the Democrats might gain a nominal majority, but their governing authority will be virtually nonexistent.

In the Senate, the chances for a Democrat take over are substantially lower. For a Democrat takeover, they would essentially have to run the table against every vulnerable Republican. If Stee|e wins in Maryland, they can forget it. It's more likely that the Senate will end up 50-50 (which becomes 51-50 with Cheney's tie-breaking vote) or with a smaller Republican majority.

Generally, it is highly likely that we will not know the outcome on election night. It could be several days before we know who really controls the House and Senate.

All in all, I wouldn't believe the hype of a massive Democrat wave. But, as usual, I could certainly be wrong.

Eh, just for fun, I'll go ahead and say I think the House will end up 220 Republican, 215 Democrats, give or take a few seats. In the Senate, I'll say 51 Republican, 47 Democrats, and two Independents (Lieberman and Jeffords).

We'll see.

Most importantly, go vote. But, do me a favor and only vote if you know who you're voting for. If you don't know anything about your candidates other than the D or R next to their name, please abstain.

That is all.