Duck and cover

Several weeks ago, I blogged about Iran and how it's only a matter of time before the shit hits the fan. Well, the fan is on high, and there's a big pile of shit heading straight toward it. The Europeans have finally admitted that their two year diplomatic campaign has achieved precisely nothing (funny, I could've told them that two years ago...) and now it's looking like Russia and China are lukewarm to the idea of imposing sanctions. Not that it matters, because sanctions would essentially be pointless unless the world community stopped buying Iranian oil, and that's simply never going to happen. So pretty much, we're screwed. There's no easy way out of this, but doing nothing is much, much worse than doing something. At any rate, I wrote an editorial on the matter scheduled to run next week. We'll see. In the mean time, here's the rought draft:

Political Philosopher Nicollo Machiavelli famously said that war cannot be avoided, it can only be postponed to the advantage of others. This harsh reality may soon come to fruition over Iran’s much-publicized and worrying nuclear program.

Earlier this month, officials in Britain, France and Germany were forced to admit that their two-year diplomatic campaign to convince Tehran to drop its nuclear ambitions had proved utterly nugatory. In what was originally an effort to avoid imposing sanctions on the Fundamentalist Islamic nation, the two-year diplomatic exercise has not only failed in stopping Iran’s nuclear program, but it has also afforded them a two-year window to fortify nuclear facilities and otherwise prepare for a military attack, as well as covertly pursue nuclear research. Above all, the European attempt to avoid imposing sanctions has all but made sanctions inevitable.

But even sanctions, at this point, are unlikely to be effective. Partly because, as it is widely believed, Iran will have already gone nuclear before any such sanctions would take effect. Sanctions would be ineffective, however, mostly because Russia and China, having veto power and the U.N. Security Council, will not allow any meaningful sanctions against Iran. Not to mention that such sanctions would ultimately be more adverse to the general population than members of the regime, ala Saddam Hussein.

To make matters much, much worse, Iran has pledged to react to any sanctions by cutting its oil exports, spiking oil prices. Though the United States would not be directly affected, having put in place an embargo against Iranian oil in 1995, the implications of an Iranian oil stoppage could be globally devastating.

We have crossed the point of no return in dealing with Iran and from this point forward, any resolution to this conflict will not be easy, quick, painless or pleasant. Iran’s president is, technically speaking, a raving lunatic. He has expressed a desire to annihilate Israel, questions the historical accuracy of the Holocaust and has said that he wishes to prepare his country for the coming of the Islamic Messiah, or Mahdi. The thought of this man having “his finger on the button,” as it were, should be universally horrifying. And to certain extent, it seems to be.

What the so-called International Community lacks, however, is a consensus on how to proceed. At the very least, the Europeans have conceded, though belatedly, that negotiations with Iran are futile. Beyond that, we can expect a great deal of quibbling and bickering over the wording of resolutions, timetables and consequences. Meanwhile, Iran will bide its time, knowing that it holds two enormous bargaining chips — oil and nuclear proliferation — that are both capable of mass destruction.

The time for diplomacy has passed and sanctions are ineffective. Military conflict is often referred to as “the last option,” but it is nevertheless an option. Though with weakened credibility and stretched military personnel following the invasion of Iraq, coupled with scattered and fortified Iranian nuclear sites, even the effectiveness of military action is called into question.

Whatever the resolution to the crisis, it is likely to get worse before it gets better. Buckle up and hold on tight, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.