Friday, December 09, 2005

Fan, this is shit. Shit, meet fan.

First of all, I apologize for all the introspective, philosophical posts lately. I think I’ve gotten it out of my system for the time being. I’m pretty sure I have Seasonal Affect Disorder. This whole sunset being at 4:30 in the afternoon makes me want to slit my wrists. But I digress.

At any rate, there’s a storm forming on the horizon that could affect all of us and, to be honest, it’s rather horrifying.

Regardless of what their government says, Iran is aggressively pursuing nuclear weapons, and if they don’t have them already, they’re damn close. This prospect should be keeping leaders all over the world up at night. And to a certain extent, I’m sure it is.

For those of you who haven’t watched the news, well, ever…I’m going to let you in on a little secret — the leaders in Iran are, technically speaking, nuttier than…uh…something that’s really nutty.

Aside from that, they subsist on a blinding, irrational hatred (in as much as hate can ever be rational) of all things Western and non-Muslim. But most specifically, they hate Israel and they wish for it to be destroyed. And with the advent of an Iranian nuclear program, such a goal is feasible. And I believe the Iranian leadership is wantonly crazy enough to try it.

This should bother people for several reasons. First of all, at the most basic level, nuclear war is something that should be avoided if at all possible. We all saw what happened to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That’s pretty messed up.

Simple humanity should dictate all out opposition to the use of nuclear weapons by one nation simply for the annihilation of another.

As if there were any other reasons needed to oppose such a scenario, Israel is one of the United States’ staunchest allies. Not only that, but a staunch ally in a region where allies are few and far between. Anyone who claims to support liberty and freedom should be among the first to defend Israel, especially when they’re surrounded by despotic, tyrannical regimes.

Of course, there’s always the question of how to deal with such a problem. The European Union, in typical European fashion, has opted to go the diplomacy route. And in typical diplomatic fashion, it isn’t working.

I often wonder why we even bother negotiating with despotic regimes. Americans can’t even trust their own politicians. Why on earth should we think that we can trust someone else’s? Asking an oppressive, propaganda-fueled government to abandon its nuclear weapons simply doesn’t work — not even when we ask nicely.

People that command obedience by force only understand force. This isn’t to say that I favor immediate military action, but we should at least impose sanctions to make it look like we mean what we’re saying. As it stands now, Iran doesn’t believe that we’re serious about disarming them — and they’re probably right.

I have very little, if any, faith that the international community will ever do what’s necessary to avert such a crisis, especially when there’s a good possibility that it won’t be easy and someone — especially a Muslim — might get their feelings hurt.

I have substantially more faith in Israel’s prowess to defend itself, as it did when a similar situation arose in Iraq in 1981. It seems, however, that Iran learned a few lessons from Iraq and has not only spread out its nuclear facilities, but put them underground. This would make an Israeli strike substantially more difficult.

To this end, it’s certainly no accident that there are nearly 200,000 American troops and other forces straddling Iran. Ever since the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, I’ve believed that neither of those were the true targets in the war. They were necessary steps, yes, but Iran has long been the most logical and important step in any campaign to curtail Islamofascism.

I have serious doubts about the American people’s ability to shoulder and stomach another armed conflict in the Middle East, but it might soon be necessary. I can only hope that both Republicans and Democrats will recognize the necessity of such a conflict and act without fear of domestic political repercussions.

Machiavelli said that war cannot be avoided, it can only be postponed to the advantage of others. This is no truer than with Iran. There will, at some point in the future, be conflict with Iran. The longer we wait to deal with it, the worse it will be. I have a feeling that the window has closed for handling it through peaceful means.

I suppose there’s always the possibility that the U.S. could assist in an overthrow of the Iranian government by pro-Western, pro-Democracy forces. That would be much more preferable to a face to face showdown, I’m just not sure how likely it is. The younger generation in Iran is actually rather pro-American, so that can certainly be used to our advantage, provided we don’t screw it up by pissing them off with an Iraq-esque invasion.

Whatever plan we decide to go with, we need to decide soon because if we let them get the bomb (provided they don’t already have it) that will make things enormously more complicated.

Just don’t be surprised to hear Iran popping up in the news more over the next several weeks. This is some serious stuff and it needs to be dealt with literally as soon as possible. March against global warming and AIDS all you want, but none of it will matter if we’re all vaporized at the hands of the mullahs.

On a personal note, I think it’s crap like this that gives me insomnia. Not that I’m lying awake clutching my pillow and waiting for the nuclear flash to engulf Washington, I just spend time thinking of ways to prevent that from happening. But such is the fate of an International Affairs major, I suppose.

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